According to the food balance, Kebumen Regency is an area with a surplus of chilies. The purpose of this study was to analyze the price volatility of red chili at the consumer level. The research method used is the ARCH-GARCH approach (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autogressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH)) with the help of the Eviews 12.0 application. The data used in this study is weekly time series data for the period January 2019 to December 2021. The red chilies analyzed included curly red chilies and red cayenne peppers.

The results showed that the best model for the volatility of curly red chili is ARCH (1), which means that the price of curly red chili at the consumer level is influenced by the volatility of the previous week. It has low volatility with an ARCH coefficient value of 0.171429 and a probability of 0.0365. The volatility of red cayenne pepper showed similar results, namely using the best model ARCH (1) with an ARCH coefficient value of 0.173510 with a probability of 0.0319. Based on this, it is necessary to analyze the volatility model on chili prices at the producer level.